Against the Odds: San Diego FC Takes One-Goal Edge into Toluca

According to soccer media, San Diego FC had a small chance of beating arguably Mexico's best team in the first leg of the Concacaf Champions Cup at Snapdragon Stadium. One thing that SDFC does well is prove doubters wrong.

Last year, many MLS pundits picked SDFC to finish near the bottom of the standings as an expansion team. They certainly didn't pick SDFC to beat the LA Galaxy, the then reigning MLS Cup champion, in the first match of the season. The underdog quickly became the favorite while continuously overcoming big challenges throughout the season.

After a very successful first year where SDFC led teams in many categories, the doubts still lingered. Can SDFC repeat such a strong performance in year two? Will they face a sophomore slump? Can the players continue to deliver great results and play to their higher level? Will the team still get results without their highest paid designated player, Chucky Lozano?

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SDFC started the season with 3 MLS wins and beat Pumas UNAM to advance in the CCC, once again proving the doubters wrong.

This time around, there was no way they were going to beat Toluca – the reigning back-to-back Liga MX champions, right?

Wrong. Not only did San Diego overcome a tough opponent – they did so with nine men. So, the question remains – how many more times does SDFC have to overcome big challenges to get the respect it deserves? If you ask the wise guys responsible for setting gambling lines in Las Vegas – the answer is, 'more'.

San Diego comes into this match a huge +800 underdog to Toluca's -310 favorite. For the fellow non-gamblers out there, that means $100 bet nets an $800 total payout if San Diego were to win. On the opposite spectrum, a bettor would have to place a $310 bet to win $100 if picking Toluca.

While those lines seem a little out of whack, there may be valid reasons for the thought behind it.

Let's dive in.

Match Information

Teams: San Diego FC vs Deportivo Toluca FC
Date: March 18th, 2026
Time: 8:00 pm, Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega, Toluca, MX
Odds: SD(+800), TOL(-310), Draw (+450)
TV: FS2, TUDN
Forecast: 65º/38º. 57º at kickoff. Sunny. 5 mph winds. 0% chance of rain. 52% humidity.

Head-to-Head

Deportivo Toluca

The Numbers

Toluca Overview

Toluca had a similar outcome to SDFC over the weekend, settling for a 1–1 draw against Atlas. Both goals came deep into stoppage time, as the hosts dropped points at home for the first time since their February 7 clash with Cruz Azul.

With a heavily rotated squad over the weekend, Toluca sent a message of match priority, similar to SDFC. It's clear that both teams are heavily focused on Wednesday and advancing to the next round of the CCC.

Toluca will be without their star midfielder, Marcel Ruiz. The Mexican international tore his ACL in the last match against SDFC and will unfortunately miss his chance to be selected for the World Cup.

On a positive note, Toluca fans were excited to see Alexis Vega in the starting XI against Atlas over the weekend. The Toluca #9 played a full 90 minutes, the first time after a long time on the injured list.

For Toluca, winning at home will be of utmost importance. The hosts haven't lost at Estadio Nemesio Díez since July of last year when they fell 3-4 to fellow Liga MX side, Tigres. Surely, Toluca will play more aggressive and come into this match attack minded as they are behind in aggregate scoring.

All signs point to an aggressive, high-stakes battle on Wednesday night, with Toluca set to push the tempo from the opening whistle in front of their home crowd.

Predicted Lineup

San Diego FC

The Numbers

San Diego FC Overview

San Diego FC’s underdog run rolls on as they aim to knock off one of the favorites to lift the CCC trophy. Oddsmakers have them as heavy outsiders, largely due to the absences of Manu Duah and Marcus Ingvartsen—two key pieces sidelined after red cards in the first leg.

It will be interesting to see who SDFC head coach Mikey Varas turns to in order to fill those roles. Many believe Varas will deploy a more defensive approach to this game, where San Diego simply have to survive a draw and they'll see their way through to the next round.

Of course, drawing Toluca in Mexico is simpler said than done. Estadio Nemesio Díez sits in 8,000+ ft of elevation, the highest that San Diego has ever played in. In order to defend the majority of the match, Varas will be asking his team to track their marks and play tireless defense, something that is extremely tough on a player's lungs and muscles if he isn't used to playing in altitude.

Every substitution will be critical, requiring perfect timing to keep fresh legs on the field and maintain the defensive shape as fatigue sets in.

Logic says the formation Varas goes with should be defensive, but the reality is – SDFC plays the same style whether at home or away, no matter the situation they're in. That being said, fans can expect the usual 4-3-3 shape for SDFC with an emphasis on defending the one goal lead they built in San Diego.

In the end, SDFC’s path forward may depend on their ability to stay organized, weather the storm, and seize any moment that comes their way. Surely, a positive result against Toluca away will place SDFC in the same discussions amongst the top clubs in the U.S.